Poll finds 71% of U.S. respondents "very concerned" about a body of water they place somewhere between Dubai and Daytona Beach
WASHINGTON — As the Strait of Hormuz entered its twelfth consecutive day of near-total closure — the latest phase of a disruption that has intensified sharply in recent weeks amid escalating hostilities between U.S.-led coalition forces and the Islamic Republic of Iran, and as crude oil futures climbed past $143 per barrel for the third time this week, a new survey has confirmed what geopolitical analysts have long suspected: the American public is extremely upset about a waterway it cannot locate, describe, or confidently distinguish from a sound.
The survey, released Monday, found that 71 percent of U.S. adults described themselves as "very concerned" or "extremely concerned" about the Strait of Hormuz. Of that group, 34 percent placed it "somewhere in the Middle East area," 18 percent identified it as "near Iran, I think, or maybe Oman," and 9 percent — in findings the authors described as "notable" — placed it "near Florida, possibly the Gulf Coast side."
Twelve percent of respondents believed "Hormuz" to be a person.
"These are very engaged Americans," said Dr. Patricia Fenwick, a senior fellow at a Washington foreign policy think tank. "They have strong opinions. They are driving to work. They are looking at that number on the pump. That number is real to them in a way that the Persian Gulf, candidly, is not."
WHAT THEY DO KNOW
What respondents lacked in cartographic precision, they compensated for in fuel-price literacy. Ninety-four percent of surveyed adults correctly identified that gas "costs more than it used to." Eighty-one percent knew the current price per gallon at their nearest station within twenty cents. Sixty-seven percent had complained about it to someone in the past forty-eight hours.
"I don't know where the Strait of Hormuz is," said Kevin Dalrymple, 44, a plumbing contractor from Terre Haute, Indiana, who participated in the survey. "I know it's bad over there. I know I paid $5.89 this morning. I know that's connected somehow. That's enough for me."
The Strait of Hormuz is a roughly 21-mile-wide channel between the Omani peninsula and Iran, through which approximately 20 percent of the world's crude oil supply transits daily. It is not near Florida. It has never been near Florida. These facts did not appear in the survey, which researchers said "wasn't really that kind of survey."
THE DIPLOMATIC SITUATION
The closure comes after the Trump administration presented a backchannel proposal to Iran late last week, which Tehran answered with a counter-proposal; the administration then rejected Iran's response as "insufficient" and "not serious." The administration has not elaborated on what a serious counter-offer might look like, though sources familiar with internal discussions say the bar is "quite high" and may involve concepts Iran describes as "national sovereignty," a term U.S. negotiators have agreed to "look into."
"We remain committed to a diplomatic resolution that meets America's core requirements," said a senior State Department official at a briefing Thursday. "We are also committed to not describing what those requirements are at this time, as that would undermine our negotiating position, which is strong."
Iran's foreign ministry responded by calling the rejection "expected" and "clarifying," and reiterated its position that the strait would remain inaccessible to international oil tanker traffic for as long as "conditions warrant," a phrase Iranian officials have deployed seventeen times this month without further elaboration.
Oil markets, for their part, have responded to this ambiguity in the traditional manner: by going up.
THE EXPERT CONSENSUS
Energy analysts contacted by IRREVERENT Newz were unanimous in their concern and measured in their projections.
"If this continues for another two to three weeks, you're looking at $160, maybe $170 a barrel," said Marcus Teel, a senior energy analyst at Clearwater Global Advisors. "At that point, the pump price becomes genuinely painful for the median American household. More painful, I mean. Than it already is. Which is already painful."
Teel added that the situation "could also resolve quickly," which he described as "also a possibility," and that markets "hate uncertainty," which he noted "is currently the primary product being exported from the region."
The Navy's Fifth Fleet, operating out of Bahrain — a country 59 percent of survey respondents could not identify on a labeled map — has reportedly increased patrol activity in the strait. Congressional leaders issued a joint statement calling for "caution," "restraint," and "a return to stability," while stopping short of specifying what any of those words might mean operationally, or who specifically should do them.
A NATION AWAITS
Back in Terre Haute, Kevin Dalrymple filled his truck on Friday morning. It cost him $94.
"I know it's the Middle East thing," he said, watching the numbers climb. "The Hormuz thing. I'm not gonna pretend I know where it is. But I know it's messing with my week."
He replaced the nozzle. He got in his truck. He drove to work.
Somewhere 7,400 miles away, through a passage he could not find on a globe, a single tanker sat at anchor, waiting for conditions to warrant something different.
The pump price, as of press time, is the only confirmed coordinate either of them needs.
— IRREVERENT NEWZ — GENERAL DESK